AI and the Arrogance of Reddit "Economists"
What happens when artificial intelligence advances to the point where computers can perform—and outperform—any cognitive task that humans can, at a fraction of the cost?
It could happen soon. From a 2023 survey of 2,778 AI researchers: On aggregate, they predict there is a 50% chance of it happening by 2047. A couple of decades away.
They refer to the concept as artificial general intelligence (AGI) or high-level machine intelligence.
I sometimes worry, a little bit, about this.
I already see AI impacting my type of work, and it accelerates every year. At some point in my lifetime, there may be nothing I can do that AI cannot do better and cheaper.
So where does that leave me? Where does that leave everyone else like me?
I have no clue. I don’t even know where to start.
In these situations, I will often go to forums or websites where people who might have the answers congregate, to see what they have to say.
My search lead me to the “r/AskEconomics” forum on Reddit. It is probably one of the largest economics forums in the world, with 1.3 million members.
It self-describes as “a central repository for questions about economic theory, research, and policy” where people provide answers “rooted in economic theory and empirical research”.
There, I found a thread asking about the consequences of AI replacing all white collar work. Here’s the link: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/1b1nyrs/if_ai_does_replace_huge_chunks_of_white_collar/
The responses to the question are extremely arrogant.
Not a single comment really engages with the question, rather choosing to ignore, deflect, and dismiss. Here are a few extracts:
Are you equally concerned that we will invent perpetual motion machines and put the energy sector out of business? The one is about as likely as the other.
[It’s] a good thing. AI will unlock the productive capacity of the human mind like never before.
Gosh, you mean like the total economic collapse that happened in America when tractors, combines, electrically pumped irrigation and vastly improvered fertilizers keep boosting food production with fewer and fewer farmers.
The overall consensus seems to be:
People have worried about automation before, and nothing bad has happened overall - so there’s nothing to worry about.
AI will never advance to the point that computers can outperform humans.
Point 2 is avoidance.
Point 1 misses the point:
Previous waves of automation—like cars and computers—enhanced human capabilities, making us more efficient.
AGI is fundamentally different. It threatens to replace human cognitive work entirely.
When machines can perform any mental task better and cheaper than us, what role remains for humans?
The fact that this forum, purportedly dedicated to serious economic discussion, cannot substantively engage with how society might adapt to such a fundamental shift, is insane to me.
I will look for answers elsewhere. But if this is any indication of what I will find elsewhere, my concerns about what the future might hold are only heightened.